Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 187.192908 229.111525 281.823796 354.399586 454.076513 5.898828e+02 7.958617e+02
2025-02-09 141.983781 190.451538 259.867659 371.446084 556.848490 8.755694e+02 1.529070e+03
2025-02-16 116.195028 165.762561 243.460916 383.505944 654.486696 1.226432e+03 2.819457e+03
2025-02-23 99.027689 147.885672 229.914211 391.912508 748.690623 1.659813e+03 5.185493e+03
2025-03-02 84.422267 130.223560 211.019722 381.870376 798.520211 2.050046e+03 8.750775e+03
2025-03-09 73.501912 116.380605 195.146046 371.574320 842.163082 2.489456e+03 1.508941e+04
2025-03-16 64.476804 104.184681 179.483319 356.147068 863.969073 2.900983e+03 2.553490e+04
2025-03-23 61.933940 103.246972 185.566047 393.566714 1071.152377 4.553689e+03 9.877447e+04
2025-03-30 57.149567 97.234781 179.771527 399.138772 1180.639366 6.064601e+03 3.841083e+05
2025-04-06 53.895276 93.685202 178.520794 416.756850 1356.244378 8.854038e+03 7.548099e+06
2025-04-13 49.519450 87.251509 169.506447 408.915117 1420.092304 1.109452e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 48.424945 87.414277 175.892849 451.054599 1778.240880 2.067201e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 46.782110 86.363921 179.636125 488.886475 2198.070495 4.203090e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 44.862668 84.451790 180.887394 519.701550 2653.740956 9.268281e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 42.692274 81.669721 179.276846 539.605924 3093.174838 2.188785e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 40.524207 78.604520 176.284662 553.082778 3534.072875 6.113351e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 37.727977 73.735645 167.324659 537.286546 3656.674538 1.267013e+06 NaN
2025-06-01 35.221794 69.301072 158.925642 521.121005 3760.578914 3.039888e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 32.765426 64.748720 149.506043 497.018324 3730.297336 6.392578e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 32.571679 65.672878 156.572703 555.756529 5080.183156 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.206275 63.537734 153.888635 564.581076 5739.357602 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.323228 62.524799 154.583459 592.612576 6994.036702 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 28.747185 59.582333 148.563837 580.111681 7309.221237 NaN NaN